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APG — Deck

APi Group · APG · NYSE

APi Group provides fire and life safety inspections, maintenance, and specialty contracting from 500+ locations in 20+ countries, operating a buy-and-build model where fire codes mandate annual inspections and drive pull-through service revenue.

$48.60
Price (Apr 24, 2026)
$21B
Market cap
$7.9B
Revenue (FY2025)
500+
Global locations
Listed via SPAC October 2019 at $10; troughed at $13.67 in September 2022 during Chubb integration; Security segment spun off July 2025; now $48.60 — nearly 5× the listing price.
2 · The margin question

Everything hinges on whether 280 bps of organic expansion follows 530 bps of restructuring-driven gains

  • The easy miles are gone. The 530 bps of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion from 10.3% (FY2022) to 13.2% (FY2025) came almost entirely from Chubb overhead elimination — a restructuring program that formally closed June 2025 after $125M of cumulative charges. That engine is off.
  • What remains is organic. The residual 280 bps to the 16% target must come from shifting Safety Services mix toward inspection and monitoring contracts and recovering Specialty Services margin from 10.7% (FY2025, down from 11.6% in FY2024) — mechanisms that are structurally slower and less certain than cost-program execution.
  • The re-rating math is the prize. Comfort Systems (FIX) operates at 16% EBITDA margin and earns 6.6× EV/Revenue; APG at 13.2% trades at 2.95×. Closing that gap would add roughly $28B of market cap on today's revenue base — larger than the earnings growth story alone.
The restructuring engine is off. The organic flywheel must now carry the weight — and the first quarterly data point under the new CFO arrives April 30.
3 · Money picture

Real cash generation and real margin progress — priced 30% above the company's own five-year average

$7.9B
Revenue (FY2025) +12.7% YoY
13.2%
Adj EBITDA margin +290 bps since FY2022
$663M
Free cash flow 3.2% FCF yield
22.4×
Adj EV/EBITDA 5-yr avg: 17.3×

The operating transformation is genuine: gross margins expanded 10 points since Chubb closed, capex held flat at 1.2% of revenue while revenue doubled, and FCF averages 2.4× reported net income. The problem is the entry point — at 22.4× adjusted EV/EBITDA, 30% above the five-year average, the stock requires not just continued execution but acceleration to hold its premium. Management guides $1,145–$1,195M adjusted EBITDA for FY2026; a 100–150 bp shortfall compresses both earnings and the multiple simultaneously.

4 · Off-filing signal

Three deals in 90 days, $150M of founder selling, and an interim CFO through the busiest acquisition quarter in company history

  • Acquisition-dependent guidance. Onyx-Fire Protection ($190M annual revenue, Canada, April 23), Wtech Fire Group (Europe, April 17), and CertaSite (Midwest, Q1 2026) together underpin the $8.4–$8.6B FY2026 revenue target — but at 5% organic growth, acquisitions account for roughly $1.1B of the $1.5B step-up from FY2025. Three concurrent integrations across a 500+ location network is the execution variable the filed financials cannot yet show.
  • Founders distributing. Franklin sold 3M shares at $40.88 in December 2025 ($122.6M); Lillie sold 360K at ~$44.30 in March 2026 ($15.7M); Ashken sold 300K at ~$43 in March 2026 ($13.1M). All three used pre-arranged plans and retain holdings worth hundreds of millions — institutions were simultaneously net buyers in Q4 2025 (Montrusco +111%, Bessemer +72%) — an ambiguous signal, not a clean warning.
  • CFO gap, four months and counting. Kevin Krumm departed December 13, 2024. Glenn Jackola has served as interim CFO through three acquisitions, the launch of the 10/16/60+ long-term framework, and a $1B buyback program — no permanent appointment announced as of April 26, 2026. April 30 is his first public earnings test.
At $48.60 — 97% of the 52-week range, with analyst consensus already reached at $48.57 — any further upside requires estimate upgrades, not merely execution continuation.
5 · For & against

Lean cautious — the entry point demands both earnings delivery and multiple expansion before either is confirmed

  • For. Roughly 41% of revenue is inspection and monitoring mandated by fire codes — it held in 2020 when commercial construction froze — and each inspection relationship creates 3–4× pull-through service revenue over a multi-year engagement. That regulatory floor is structurally hard for a competitor to replicate.
  • For. Safety Services margin expanded 460 bps to 16.8% in FY2025 and sits just 20 bps from the 17% threshold that would signal the inspection-first conversion crossed a tipping point — at which point the re-rating from contractor to services-compounder pricing accelerates before the margin fully arrives.
  • Against. At 22.4× adjusted EV/EBITDA — 30% above the five-year average of 17.3× — a 100–150 bp earnings miss compresses both earnings and the multiple simultaneously; the bear scenario yields $37/share from today's $48.60 with only a guidance shortfall, no fundamental breakdown required.
  • Against. Specialty Services margin fell to 10.7% in FY2025 from 11.6% in FY2024, requiring Safety Services to reach 18%+ to hit the 16% consolidated target — a ceiling that has never been confirmed, making the 17% milestone feel closer than the full group margin math implies.
One condition flips the view: Q2 2026 Safety Services adjusted margin above 17%. That converts the thesis from forecast to confirmed trajectory — and the re-rating starts before the full margin arrives.

Watchlist to re-rate: Q1 and Q2 2026 Safety Services adj margin vs. 17% threshold; Specialty Services margin vs. 11.5% recovery line; permanent CFO appointment and first capital allocation decision under Jackola.